Wednesday, June 28, 2006


Oh David Albright has written an article saying that Iran could have a nuclear weapon by 2009. This march to war with Iran is being stepped up every day, it now seems.

Let's review what's been happening (not strictly chronological):

1. Iran is declared part of the "axis of evil" in 2002 SOTU address
2. Bush refuses Iran's offer of negotiations in 2003
3. Ahmadinejad is elected and is said to have been instrumental in the 1979 embassy takeover (this is later dismissed by the CIA)
4. Iran announces opening of euro-denominated oil bourse (which as of this writing is still not operational)
5. NIE says in August 2005 that Iran is at least 10 years away from an atomic weapon
6. Ahmadinejad supposedly calls for the destruction of Israel and supposedly denies the Holocaust (this is later revealed, by Juan Cole to have been due to mistranslations of what Ahmadinejad said)
7. Iran reveals that it has enriched uranium which will be used for peaceful energy production, which is its right both in nature and under the non-proliferation treaty to which it is a signatory, unlike Israel

8. Ahmadinejad sends a letter to Bush to try to jumpstart a dialogue--Bush turns up his nose
9. Khamenei also sends a letter to Bush, which is mostly ignored by the Western press and also offers dialogue l
10. U.S. and EU offer Iran a secret "package of incentives" supposedly to try to get Iran to stop enriching uranium, but most details are purposely kept secret so as to cast the proposal in the best light in the eyes of the Western media
11. Iran says deal is progress, but notes "ambiguities" in details
12. Bush and neotheocons in press and government say Iran should respond sooner than later and that offer is "reasonable"
13. Iran says they'll respond in a couple months
14. Casey, U.S. commander in Iraq, says Iran is helping insurgency
15. Khamenei, the Iranian who will have the final say on the proposal, says Iran does not need negotiations and that uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes is fully within Iran's rights
16. A day later, David Albright says Iran could have a nuclear weapon within 3 years